Higher-Order Marginal Likelihood Approximation for Nonlinear State Space Models

This paper proposes an approach to marginal likelihood approximation for nonlinear state space models that makes Bayesian model comparison possible in large samples.

Joshua C.C. Chan and Wei Zhang

Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models for High-dimensional Matrix-valued Time Series

This paper proposes dynamic factor models for matrix-valued time series useful for empirical macroeconomics and financial economics.

Joshua C.C. Chan and Wei Zhang

Measuring Inflation Risk Using Matrix Dynamic Factors: A Granular Approach for the Euro Area

This paper applies dynamic factor models for matrix-valued time series on euro area inflation panel and develops inflationary pressure indices for eura area countries and extend the model to estimate missing data employing the matrix structure.

Marta BaƄbura, Joshua C.C. Chan and Wei Zhang

Bayesian Model Comparison for Large Bayesian VARs after the COVID-19 Pandemic

This paper develops a marginal likelihood estimator that combines importance sampling and variational approximation for comparing large VARs with different time-varying volatility specifications and outlier adjustments.

Joshua C.C. Chan, Xuewen Yu and Wei Zhang, Journal of Econometrics.

Asymmetric Dynamic Factor Model

We develop an asymmetric dynamic factor model that allows the impact of latent factors to vary depending on whether the factors are larger or smaller than their thresholds.

Joshua C.C. Chan and Wei Zhang